On Friday afternoon, UEFA handed down a surprising and landmark decision in their investigation into Manchester City’s alleged breaches of Financial Fair Play (FFP) regulation. The allegations stem back to between 2012 and 2016 and have seen the Cityzens fined £25 million and kicked out of UEFA club competitions for the next 2 seasons.
But what exactly does this mean for the Reds? We’ve taken a look at all the likely and not so likely scenarios to find out.
What are City accused of doing?
The semi-independent Adjudicatory Chamber of the Club Financial Control Body found that the club had breached FFP by overstating its sponsorship revenue and failing to cooperate with UEFA’s investigation. Put simply, City overstated the amount of money they received from their major sponsor, Etihad Airways, in order to circumvent FFP regulations.
Why is that such a big deal?
When FFP was introduced in 2011, one of UEFA’s main aims was to ensure clubs operated within their means and didn’t rely on external factors such as billionaire owners to stay operable. However, City owner Sheikh Mansour wanted to put more money into the club and struck a deal with Etihad to fund the sponsorship himself.
Etihad, who are owned by the Abu Dhabi ruling family, pay City £67.5 million per year to sponsor the club’s shirts, stadiums, training facility and academy. Of that amount, Sheikh Mansour is alleged to personally fund £59.5 while Etihad themselves pay just £8 million allowing Sheikh Mansour to avoid FFP while also providing cut-price advertising for Etihad.
How do we know about this?
UEFA’s investigation was launched after Portuguese national Rui Pinto leaked a number of emails from the club that showed the proposed breakdown of the deal between Etihad and City. Pinto’s leaks were initially published in German magazine Der Spiegel, though Pinto now faces 147 charges including computer hacking in his home country.
Can City appeal?
Yes, and they have already vehemently denied the charges laid on them by Club Financial Control Body. City can challenge the decision in Court of Arbitration for Sport (CAS) who will have the final say on whether the charges are upheld or overturned.
Is it likely that their appeal is successful?
City certainly seem to think they have a good chance and have slammed what they called a ‘prejudicial process’ that ‘flawed and consistently leaked.’ The club also took issue with a case they claimed was ‘initiated by UEFA, prosecuted by UEFA and judged by UEFA,’ seemingly not understanding that there is nothing unusual about a governing body adjudicating its own rules.
City has long taken issue with UEFA over FFP, measures which the club feels are designed to maintain the status quo and prevent clubs such as themselves breaking through. Whether or not that is paranoia on the part of the ownership and fan base is hard to say, though the measures have widely been celebrated for reigning in unsustainable spending in European football.
While it is hard to know what CAS will do, there is certainly a feeling that a compromise could be reached whereby City pay a large fine in exchange for cooperation moving forward and no ban. Much will depend on whether City could palate such an outcome or whether they believe their conduct is without reproach despite evidence to the contrary.
Have other clubs breached FFP?
City are far from the first to be charged with breaching FFP, though this is admittedly the harshest punishment handed out so far by European football’s governing body. For example, Paris Saint-Germain got off with a slap on the wrist for a similar misdirection a couple of years ago, though the Parisians did at least cooperate with the investigation.
While City cry foul at a process they consider to be designed to spite them, the contrast to PSG’s response is stark and perhaps the biggest indicator of why UEFA have come down so hard. The animosity between City and UEFA, mostly directed from Manchester to UEFA headquarters in Nyon, Switzerland, saw City refuse to assist the investigation and found guilty of trying to deceive FFP.
What impact will it have this season?
The impact between now and the end of the season is unlikely to be major with the club set to challenge the decision and allowed to compete in the knockout stages of this season’s Champions League. There is a chance that the Premier League could also choose to intervene given that City breached regulations that also apply to the domestic competition, but more on that later.
Will players leave?
This one is hard to judge until City’s appeal to CAS is heard and the decision is either upheld or overturned – it is likely that hearing of the matter is fast-tracked before the summer. However, with the Champions League estimated to be worth between £100 million and £150 million per season, an extended absence from the competition could cost City dearly.
In addition, with a relatively ageing squad on the books, it is likely that Pep Guardiola’s superstars will not be content without European football and could look to move. The same could be said of the manager himself who is widely tipped to leave Manchester in the coming year or so and could see his exit accelerated by this decision.
Could any City players come to Liverpool?
While we’d never say never, it is unlikely that City would ever sanction a sale to the Reds, a club who they have developed a fierce rivalry with, even if again it is a rather one-way relationship. City have never forgiven Liverpool’s ‘hacking’ of the scouting system in 2012 and would not do business with their rivals for the Premier League title.
What about the 2014 Premier League title…
We’ve all heard the speculation, if City breached FFP between 2012 and 2016 surely that jeopardises their Premier League titles during that time, including in 2014 when they beat the Reds by just 2 points. However, while the possibility is open in theory, we wouldn’t be getting our hopes up especially with a legal challenge on the way.
Could this change European football?
In short, it is hard to see how it won’t – if the sanctions are upheld it will show that UEFA are finally getting serious about FFP but if CAS overturns the decision it will show that big clubs can do what they like. This is truly a battle for the soul of football and one in which it is far from certain that the ‘good’ guys will win.
On a more radical scale, there is a possibility, or even a likelihood, that City use their free midweeks to host international friendlies to make up for lost Champions League revue. If the club can successfully tap the American and Asian markets, the decision to ban City man actually come back to bite UEFA by hastening a breakaway European Super League.
The Anfield Chronicle 