Liverpool host Atletico Madrid on Wednesday night in the second leg of their crucial Champions League Round of 16 knockout tie that could define the rest of the Reds’ season. Trailing 1-0 from the first leg thanks to Saul Niguez’s early strike and with the Premier League close to secure, focus will shift to ensuring that Jurgen Klopp’s men keep their European title defence alive.
The Reds have notoriously been out of form since the winter break having lost 3 of their 6 since games since then in all competitions including the first leg in Madrid. Further, having only limped past Norwich, West Ham and Bournemouth during this period, there is a feeling that the Spanish giants could not have picked a better time to visit Anfield.
However, Atletico have their own problems and currently sit in sixth place in La Liga, outside the Champions League places they have finished in every season since 2012/13. Still only 2 points off third place, Diego Simeone’s men have drawn an incredible 12 of their 27 games this season including 2 of their 3 games since the first leg.
With neither Spain nor England yet to feel the full effect of the Coronavirus, a packed Anfield will play a key role on Wednesday night just like it did last season against Barcelona. While there is uncertainty about how the rest of the season will play out, both sides can only look to the task in front of them with Atleti looking to repair the wounds from this stage last season.
Taking a 2-0 lead from the first leg against Juventus 12 months ago, Simeone’s men could only watch in horror as Cristiano Ronaldo inspired the old lady to a comeback in Turin. A late penalty sealed Atleti’s fate and ultimately saw the Mattress Makers overhaul their ageing squad in last summer.
Of course, last time Atletico arrived at Anfield defending a 1-0 first leg lead it was the Madrid side who advanced to the next round courtesy of a victory on away goals after extra time. However, having taken place almost 10 years ago in the 2009/2010 Europa League semi-final and with both clubs in entirely different situations, that result is unlikely to have too much relevance on Wednesday night.
Atleti were good value for their first leg lead after frustrating the Reds and preventing Klopp’s men from registering a single shot on target at the Wanda Metropolitano. It was a classic Simeone performance, one that has been so sorely lacking so far this season and provides a blueprint for what Atletico will attempt to recreate on Merseyside.
Of course, there were positives for Klopp to – despite his attack largely misfiring on the day it is rare that a side will dominate possession (73%) without creating any chances. Further, Atleti didn’t create too much themselves in Madrid but demonstrated how formidable they can be when given a lead to defend.
Team News
The big news for Klopp is that captain Jordan Henderson may be fit to return to the starting lineup having returned to full training on Sunday. Henderson’s absence coincided with the Reds’ recent poor run and while he may not quite be up to match sharpness, the former Sunderland man’s leadership would be invaluable.
Andrew Robertson should also be fit to return having sat out on Saturday’s win over Bournemouth as a precaution meaning that there will likely be no room for James Milner despite his goalline clearance against the Cherries. The only negative for the Reds will be the absence of Alisson Becker who is unlikely to be fit before after the upcoming international break while Xherdan Shaqiri remains a long-term absence.
With the back 4 and front 3 just about picking themselves, especially after both Mohamed Salah and Sadio Mane found the back of the next against Bournemouth, the only contention remains in midfield. Fabinho has looked sluggish in recent weeks and may be the most vulnerable should Henderson start which Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain offers drive and goals in the middle of the park.
Meanwhile, Simeone has been able to name close to a full-strength side to travel to Merseyside including Joao Felix, Kieran Trippier and Hector Herrera who all missed the first leg. The Argentine will be sweating on the fitness of Alvaro Morata after the Spanish striker who will have to pass a late fitness test to feature.
With a lead to protect, Alteti will more than likely again field a narrow 4-4-2 in order to compress the space in which the Reds’ front 3 can operate while offering a threat on the break. Stefan Savic and Felipe seem to have cemented their positions at the heart of the Atleti defence ahead of Jan Oblak while Renan Lodi and Trippier should start on the flanks.
Ahead of them, surprise first leg starter Thomas Lemar is also a doubt due to a knock but may have been sacrificed anyway in pursuit of a more functional midfield. With Saul, Koke and Thomas Partey pretty much the first names on the teamsheet, there is one spot remain with Yannick Carrasco and Marco Llorente the main contenders.
Prediction
If the Reds’ cannot overturn the 1-0 deficit on Wednesday night, there is a chance that this incredible season could drift with the Premier League title all but secured. Klopp’s men have no distraction and no excuses with a chance to defend their crown as champions of Europe surely a huge motivation for a team that has never lacked desire.
However, this will be no easy task – Atleti know what they need to do and how to do it while also possessing more than enough ability to score a few themselves to make the Reds task even harder. I don’t see Simeone’s men being kept scoreless, particularly with Alisson out, but I have to be optimistic and go for a 3-1 win for the Reds.